Polar Geopolitics - Arctic and Antarctic analysis

In May, the Kingdom of Denmark takes over from Norway chairship of an Arctic Council that continues to face an array of significant challenges in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and other geopolitical developments. At the same time, there has also been uncertainty on whether the center of gravity of the Kingdom’s chairship will be in Copenhagen or in the Greenlandic capital of Nuuk. Here in part 2 of the “Future of the Arctic Council” session recorded live at the recent Arctic Frontiers conference, Christian Prip, senior researcher at the Fridtjof Nansen Institute, and Gosia Smieszek-Rice, postdoctoral researcher at the Arctic University of Norway, discuss the Kingdom of Denmark’s rapidly approaching chairship, the transition from Norway to Denmark, and some of the pressing issues that Nuuk and Copenhagen will face in leading the Council’s efforts to bring a degree of coherence to Arctic governance despite difficult geopolitical conditions.

Polar Geopolitics has now started a Substack where we will provide edited episode transcripts, original articles and analyses, and other content on geopolitics, the Arctic and Antarctica:  https://polargeopolitics.substack.com 

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Two Arctic Council insiders discuss the unique qualities and key role the Council continues to play even after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine cast it into crisis three years ago. Jennifer Spence, Director of the Arctic Initiative at Harvard’s Belfer Center, and Rolf Rødven, Executive Secretary of the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program, sat down with Polar Geopolitics at the Arctic Frontiers conference for a live podcast recording on the future of the Arctic Council. In the session organized by the Fridtjof Nansen Institute, Polar Geopolitics and Arctic Frontiers, Rødven and Spence argued that science diplomacy generated through Arctic Council Working Groups, as well as the participation of indigenous peoples’ groups in the Council’s work, has helped maintain a degree of exceptionalism in Arctic governance despite the fraught geopolitical situation. This is the first of three podcast episodes on the future of the Arctic Council recorded live at Arctic Frontiers in Tromsø, Norway on January 27, 2025.

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In the midst of intense international interest in Greenland, general elections have been called for March 11th, with potential geopolitical implications across a range of issues, including independence from the Kingdom of Denmark. To explain the stakes and dynamics of the upcoming election, and analyze regional security in the context of U.S. interest in acquiring Greenland, joining the podcast is Dr. Rasmus Leander Nielsen, head of the Centre for Foreign & Security Policy at the University of Greenland in Nuuk. He also analyzes relations between Copenhagen and Nuuk, as well as Greenland’s geopolitical position and natural resources, which has attracted great interest not only from the United States but also from China and the European Union. In addition, Dr. Leander Nielsen discusses the Kingdom of Denmark’s upcoming chairship of the Arctic Council, where Greenland will play a leading role.

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Independence or an American acquisition of Greenland would fracture the Kingdom of Denmark as currently constituted. On this episode, associate professor Jon Rahbek-Clemmensen, research director at the Center for Arctic Security Studies at the Royal Danish Defence College, explains how and why Copenhagen intends to keep the Kingdom intact, while also accommodating the interests of Greenlanders and avoiding alienating its closest ally, the United States, at a time of great turbulence in the European security environment.

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An in-depth discussion with Klaus Dodds, professor of Geopolitics at Royal Holloway University of London, on Donald Trump’s latest Greenland gambit and how the incoming US president’s geographical imagination might shape Arctic geopolitics and the liberal international order in an era of great power competition.

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Arctic security, critical undersea infrastructure and Russian strategic calculations are in focus as Mathieu Boulègue joins the podcast to analyze the wider geopolitical consequences of recent events and upheavals in Ukraine, Syria, the Baltic Sea and beyond. Consulting Fellow with the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House, Boulègue discusses the effects of Russia’s war against Ukraine on its military posture in the Arctic, the introduction of North Korean troops into the war, Russia-China relations and possible collaboration on hybrid activities such as seabed cable sabotage, and how Donald Trump could impact the United States’ increasingly comprehensive Arctic engagement.

Mathieu Boulègue report for Wilson Center "Arctic Seabed Warfare against Data Cables":  https://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/arctic-seabed-warfare-against-data-cables-risks-and-impact-us-critical-undersea 

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Many observers considered the 43^rd annual CCAMLR meeting in Hobart a major disappointment due to the failure to renew important protections on krill fisheries and the continued lack of progress on marine protected areas in the Southern Ocean around Antarctica. Some are even concerned that the breakdown in consensus, centered on China and Russia refusing to extend existing or institute new protection measures, foreshadows greater geopolitical problems infecting Antarctic governance. To analyze the complexities of CCAMLR and what the meeting might portend for the future of the Antarctic Treaty System, Dr. Tony Press from the Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies at the University of Tasmania joins the podcast, sharing insights from decades of direct involvement with the science and geopolitics of Antarctica as Australia’s former CCAMLR commissioner and chairman (2002-2006) of the Antarctic Treaty’s Committee for Environmental Protection.

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How does China exert influence in the Arctic, and has it already peaked? A new in-depth report published by the Wilson Center analyzes Chinese information and influence operations in each of the eight Arctic Council member states. The report’s co-author Adam Lajeunesse, associate professor at St. Francis Xavier University, joins the podcast to explain China’s multifaceted influence strategy in the Arctic and how it has gone about “selling” itself as a “near-Arctic state”—and whether Western observers have been too eager to buy in to this narrative and the ostensible threat China poses to the Arctic order. Dr. Lajeunesse also discusses the China-Russia relationship, China’s wolf warrior diplomacy, and how China has in recent years attempted to recalibrate its messaging and activities in the Arctic.  

Selling the “Near Arctic State”: China’s Information and Influence Operations in the Arctic (Wilson Center 2024) by Adam Lajeunesse and P. Whitney Lackenbauer: https://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/selling-near-arctic-state

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