Polar Geopolitics - Arctic and Antarctic analysis

In the midst of intense international interest in Greenland, general elections have been called for March 11th, with potential geopolitical implications across a range of issues, including independence from the Kingdom of Denmark. To explain the stakes and dynamics of the upcoming election, and analyze regional security in the context of U.S. interest in acquiring Greenland, joining the podcast is Dr. Rasmus Leander Nielsen, head of the Centre for Foreign & Security Policy at the University of Greenland in Nuuk. He also analyzes relations between Copenhagen and Nuuk, as well as Greenland’s geopolitical position and natural resources, which has attracted great interest not only from the United States but also from China and the European Union. In addition, Dr. Leander Nielsen discusses the Kingdom of Denmark’s upcoming chairship of the Arctic Council, where Greenland will play a leading role.

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Independence or an American acquisition of Greenland would fracture the Kingdom of Denmark as currently constituted. On this episode, associate professor Jon Rahbek-Clemmensen, research director at the Center for Arctic Security Studies at the Royal Danish Defence College, explains how and why Copenhagen intends to keep the Kingdom intact, while also accommodating the interests of Greenlanders and avoiding alienating its closest ally, the United States, at a time of great turbulence in the European security environment.

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An in-depth discussion with Klaus Dodds, professor of Geopolitics at Royal Holloway University of London, on Donald Trump’s latest Greenland gambit and how the incoming US president’s geographical imagination might shape Arctic geopolitics and the liberal international order in an era of great power competition.

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Arctic security, critical undersea infrastructure and Russian strategic calculations are in focus as Mathieu Boulègue joins the podcast to analyze the wider geopolitical consequences of recent events and upheavals in Ukraine, Syria, the Baltic Sea and beyond. Consulting Fellow with the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House, Boulègue discusses the effects of Russia’s war against Ukraine on its military posture in the Arctic, the introduction of North Korean troops into the war, Russia-China relations and possible collaboration on hybrid activities such as seabed cable sabotage, and how Donald Trump could impact the United States’ increasingly comprehensive Arctic engagement.

Mathieu Boulègue report for Wilson Center "Arctic Seabed Warfare against Data Cables":  https://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/arctic-seabed-warfare-against-data-cables-risks-and-impact-us-critical-undersea 

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Many observers considered the 43^rd annual CCAMLR meeting in Hobart a major disappointment due to the failure to renew important protections on krill fisheries and the continued lack of progress on marine protected areas in the Southern Ocean around Antarctica. Some are even concerned that the breakdown in consensus, centered on China and Russia refusing to extend existing or institute new protection measures, foreshadows greater geopolitical problems infecting Antarctic governance. To analyze the complexities of CCAMLR and what the meeting might portend for the future of the Antarctic Treaty System, Dr. Tony Press from the Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies at the University of Tasmania joins the podcast, sharing insights from decades of direct involvement with the science and geopolitics of Antarctica as Australia’s former CCAMLR commissioner and chairman (2002-2006) of the Antarctic Treaty’s Committee for Environmental Protection.

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How does China exert influence in the Arctic, and has it already peaked? A new in-depth report published by the Wilson Center analyzes Chinese information and influence operations in each of the eight Arctic Council member states. The report’s co-author Adam Lajeunesse, associate professor at St. Francis Xavier University, joins the podcast to explain China’s multifaceted influence strategy in the Arctic and how it has gone about “selling” itself as a “near-Arctic state”—and whether Western observers have been too eager to buy in to this narrative and the ostensible threat China poses to the Arctic order. Dr. Lajeunesse also discusses the China-Russia relationship, China’s wolf warrior diplomacy, and how China has in recent years attempted to recalibrate its messaging and activities in the Arctic.  

Selling the “Near Arctic State”: China’s Information and Influence Operations in the Arctic (Wilson Center 2024) by Adam Lajeunesse and P. Whitney Lackenbauer: https://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/selling-near-arctic-state

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From geopolitical posturing surrounding the status of Belarus and Canada inside the Antarctic Treaty, to diverging views on science, environmental protection and the regulation of tourism, the 46^thAntarctic Treaty Consultative Meeting in Kochi, India provided, in an era of great power competition and new constellations within the international system, a snapshot on the current state of affairs in the governance of Antarctica. Dr. Kati Lindström, a researcher at KTH in Stockholm and Estonia’s point of contact to the Antarctic Treaty who participated in ATCM 46 in India this past May, joins the podcast to analyze the outcomes and geopolitical implications of the latest annual meeting of the consultative parties to the Antarctic Treaty. An historian by training, Dr. Lindström also explains the geopolitical significance of cultural heritage remains in Antarctica for certain states, particularly those with historical claims in the continent.

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The eight member states of the Arctic Council each draw upon geography, history and other factors to promote their identity as an Arctic nation, while non-Arctic states seeking influence in the region use different—although sometimes similar—arguments to foster an image of being an Arctic stakeholder or, as in one prominent example, a “near-Arctic state”. The author of the forthcoming book Arctic State Identity – Geography, History and Geopolitical Relations (Manchester U.P. 2025), Dr. Ingrid Medby of Newcastle University, joins the podcast to discuss the processes, geopolitics and inclusion/exclusion dynamics of Arctic state identity construction.

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