Polar Geopolitics

Although a unique set of circumstances characterize Svalbard, belonging to Norway under a 1920 treaty, the situation there reflects many of the major trends—and faultlines—in Arctic geopolitics. From science diplomacy and security to geoeconomics and great power competition, the High Arctic archipelago, where both Norway and Russia maintain permanent settlements and an array of non-Arctic states are active through long-term research programs, provides a useful lens for analyzing some of the key issues at stake in the contemporary Arctic. Dr. Andreas Østhagen, Senior Researcher at the Fridtjof Nansen Institute, joins the podcast for a comprehensive discussion that encompasses the new Norwegian white paper on Svalbard, the interest of China and India and other countries present there, the relevant international legal regimes and Russian hybrid activities in and around the archipelago. For those wanting to learn more about Svalbard, this 90-minute episode, centered on Østhagen’s extensive research and expertise, serves as a crash course on one of the most complex and fascinating areas of Arctic geopolitics.  

Science and expert knowledge are pivotal for meeting many of the environmental challenges, economic opportunities and geopolitical imperatives of the contemporary Arctic. The Arctic Frontiers conference reflects this fact through its selection of seven scientific themes that serve as pillars for the annual event held every January in Tromsø, Norway. Not only natural science, the needed expertise ranges from politics and geopolitics, green technologies, indigenous knowledge, history and socials science, geoeconomics, community resilience and climate adaptation. Dr. Jenny Turton, Senior Advisor in charge of developing the science program for Arctic Frontiers, joins the podcast to present the scientific themes for the Conference in 2025, and provide an overview of some of the most pressing issues currently facing the Arctic that have informed the selection process.  

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Reports of Russia’s discovery of huge oil reserves in Antarctic waters has caused concern in some quarters over (frozen) territorial claims and the future of the Protocol on Environmental Protection to the Antarctic Treaty, which permanently bans mining in and around the continent. Prof. Klaus Dodds, whose recent testimony for a UK parliamentary inquiry sparked a media firestorm over Russia’s activities and intentions in Antarctica, joins the podcast to discuss what he sees as classic grey zone tactics where, in this case, scientific research could possibly serve as a pretense for the pursuit of economic and geopolitical interests. Prof. Dodds also clarifies some common misconceptions over the significance of 2048 for the Antarctic Treaty, analyzes Antarctic geopolitics in the context of great power competition between China, Russia and the US, and shares ideas on how countries such as the UK—which is scheduled to release its first Antarctic strategy this autumn—can raise awareness and engage the public on increasingly important issues surrounding the polar regions.

“Greenland is the most dynamic piece in the new Arctic security jigsaw puzzle”, according to a new book that applies the international relations theory of securitization to analyze the security and geopolitics of Greenland and the Arctic. Marc Jacobsen, Ole Wæver and Ulrik Pram Gad, co-editors and authors of Greenland in Arctic Security: (De)securitization Dynamics under Climatic Thaw and Geopolitical Freeze, join the podcast to discuss the configuration of Arctic security and explain how relations between Nuuk, Copenhagen and Washington, as well as issues such as Greenlandic national identity, independence and sovereignty, are strongly influencing the future of the region.

Marc Jacobsen is an Assistant Professor at the Royal Danish Defence College; Ole Wæver is a Professor at the University of Copenhagen; and Ulrik Pram Gad is a Senior Researcher at the Danish Institute for International Studies. Greenland in Arctic Security is available from the University of Michigan Press: https://press.umich.edu/Books/G/Greenland-in-Arctic-Security2

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In this episode of the Polar Geopolitics podcast, recorded live at the 2024 Arctic Frontiers conference in Tromsø, Norway, host Eric Paglia interviews Andreas Østhagen of the Fridtjof Nansen Institute and Kelsey Frazier from the Ted Stevens Center for Arctic Security Studies. The discussion ranges from global trends affecting the geopolitical position of the Arctic and local security issues specific to Alaska and the Barents Sea region, to the real and anticipated effects of climate change, the challenge of changing sea ice conditions and other maritime issues such as domain awareness, seabed claims and seabed mining, and the pressing need for investments in assets like port infrastructure and polar security cutters.

To analyze the transformed security environment in Northern Europe since the NATO accession of Sweden and Finland, this episode features an interview with Minna Ålander, research fellow at the Finish Institute of International Affairs in Helsinki. The in-depth discussion, at time when the Nordic countries have been engaged with their NATO partners in the major Nordic Response 2024 military exercise, covers the interconnections between the Arctic and Baltic regions from a security standpoint, Nordic and US defense cooperation, the integration of Finland and Sweden into the NATO command structure, Finnish relations with China, and the hybrid warfare tactics that have been employed in the Baltic Sea and Finland’s border with Russia.  

Dr. Ian Bremmer, president and founder of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media, joins the podcast to discuss Antarctica and the short- and long-term impacts of climate change and the emerging green transition on the geopolitics of the polar regions. Dr. Bremmer, who recently returned from a trip to Antarctica, also explains how the six-decade success story of the Antarctic Treaty System could provide a precedent for the global governance of outer space in the years ahead.  

Anu Fredrikson, Executive Director of Arctic Frontiers and former director of the Arctic Economic Council, joins the podcast to discuss sustainable development, economic opportunities and the Green Transition that is taking place in the Arctic alongside structural changes in the regional security environment. With the annual Arctic Frontiers conference coming up in the end of January, Anu Fredrikson also takes up some of the Big Picture themes that will animate discussions in Tromsø, such as Global Actions/Arctic Reactions, Arctic Security-Local Resilience, Navigating Arctic Realities, and Rethinking Arctic Development.